From August 22 – 28 Jonathon Munros will be discounted to 99c on Amazon in the US and 99p in the UK. The third book in a series, in which the evil Jonathon Munro violates the only reason his evil behaviour has as yet not been punished. He is to be replaced by an android, who learns to behave like the real man. However, Jonathon’s inherent evil has been underestimated, and the android, knowing of Jonathon’s obsession with sex, and knowing that sex is needed for reproduction, decides to start reproducing itself. What could possibly go right? A dystopian hard science fiction novel that, while the third of a series, stands alone as long as you accept the characters have a past, and a problem that makes the Terminator seem modest.
Further to the discussion on climate change, in New Zealand now the argument is that we must reduce our greenhouse emissions by converting our vehicle fleet to electric vehicles. So, what about the world? Let us look at the details. Currently, there are estimated to be 1.2 billion vehicles on the roads, and by 2035 there will be two billion, assuming current trends continue. However, let us forget about such trends, and look at what it would take to switch 1.2 billion electric vehicles to electric. Obviously, at the price of them, that is not going to happen overnight, but how feasible is this in the long run?
For a scoping analysis, we need numbers, and the following is a “back of the envelope” type analysis. This is designed not to give answers, but at least to visualise the size of the problem. To start, we have to assume a battery size per vehicle, so I am going to assume each vehicle will have an 85 kWh battery assembly. A number of vehicles now have more than this, but equally many have less. However, for initial “back of the envelope” scoping, details are ignored. For the current purposes I shall assume an 85 kWh battery assembly and focus n the batteries.
First, we need a graphite anode, which, from web-provided data will require approximately 40 million t of graphite. Since Turkey alone has reserves of about 90 million t, strictly speaking, graphite is not a problem, although from a chemical point of view, what might be called graphite is not necessarily suitable. However, if there are impurities, they can be cleaned up. So far, not a limiting factor.
Next, each battery assembly will use about 6 kg of lithium, and using the best figures from Tesla, at least 17 kg of cobalt. This does not look too serious until we get to multiplying by 1.2 billion, which gets us to 7.2 million tonne of lithium, and 20.4 million t of cobalt. World production of lithium is 43,000 t/a, while that of cobalt is 110,000 t/a, and most of the cobalt goes to other uses already known. So overnight conversion is not possible. The world reserves of lithium are about 16 million t, so there is enough lithium, although since most of the reserves are not actually in production, presumably due to the difficulty in purifying the materials, we can assume a significant price increase would be required. Worse, the known reserves for cobalt are 7,100,000 so it is not possible to power these vehicles with our current “best battery technology”. There are alternatives, such as manganese based cathode additives, but with current technology they only have about 2/3 the power density and they can only last for about half the number of power cycles, so maybe this is not an answer.
Then comes the problem of how to power these vehicles. Let us suppose they use about ¼ of their energy on high-use days and they recharge for the next day. That requires about 24 billion kWhr of electricity generated that day for this purpose. World electricity production is currently a little over 21,000 TWh, Up to a point, that indicates “no problem”, except that over 1/3 of that came from coal, while gas and oil burning added to coal brought the fossil fuels contribution up to 2/3 of world energy production, and coal burning was the fastest growing contribution to energy demand. Also, of course, this is additional electricity we need. Global energy demand rose by 900 TWh in 2018. (Electricity statistics from the International Energy Agency.) So switching to electric vehicles will increase coal burning, which increases the emission of greenhouse gases, counter to the very problem you are trying to solve. Obviously, electricity supply is not a problem for transport, but it clearly overwhelms transport in contributing to the greenhouse gas problem. Germany closing its nuclear power stations is not a useful contribution to the problem.
It is frequently argued that solar power is the way to collect the necessary transport electricity. According to Wikipedia, the most productive solar power plant is in China’s Tengger desert, which produces 1.547 GW from 43 square kilometers. If we assume that it can operate like this for 6 hrs per day, we have 9.3 Gwh/day. The Earth has plenty of area, however, the 110,000 square km required is a significant fraction. Further, most places do not have such a friendly desert close by. Many have proposed that solar panels of the roof of houses could store power through the day and charge the vehicle at night, but to do that we have just doubled the battery requirements, and these are strained already. The solar panels could feed the grid through the day and charge the vehicles through the night when peak power demand has fallen away, so that would solve part of the problem, but now the solar panels have to make sense in terms of generating electricity for general purposes. Note that if we develop fusion power, which would solve a lot of energy requirements, it is most unlikely a fusion power plant could have its energy output varied too much, which would mean they would have run continuously through the night. At this point, charging electric cars would greatly assist the use of fusion power.
To summarise the use of electricity to power road transport using independent vehicles, there would need to be a significant increase in electricity production, but it is still a modest fraction of what we already generate. The reason it is so significant to New Zealand is that much of New Zealand electricity is renewable anyway, thanks to the heavy investment in hydropower. Unfortunately, that does not count because it was all installed prior to 1990. Those who turned off coal plants to switch to gas that had suddenly became available around 1990 did well out of these protocols, while those who had to resort to thermal because the hydro was fully utilised did not. However, in general the real greenhouse problem lies with the much bigger thermal power station emissions, especially the coal-fired stations. The limits to growth of electric vehicles currently lie with battery technology, and for electric vehicles to make more than a modest contribution to the transport problems, we need a fundamentally different form of battery or fuel cell. However, to power them, we need to develop far more productive electricity generation that does emit greenhouse gases.
Finally, I have yet to mention the contribution of biofuels. I shall do that later, but if you want a deeper perspective than in my blogs, my ebook “Biofuels” is 99c this week at Smashwords, in all formats. (https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/454344.) Three other fictional ebooks are also on discount. (Go to https://www.smashwords.com/profile/view/IanMiller)
From June 13 – 20, Legatus Legionis will be discounted to 99c on Amazon in the US and 99p in the UK. The second book in a series, in which science fiction has some real science. Have you got what it takes to actually develop a theory? In the first book in the series, Gaius Claudius Scaevola is asked by Pallas Athene to do three things, before he will be transported to another planet. The scientific problem is to prove the Earth goes around the Sun with what was known and was available in the first century. Can you do it? The answer is given here, but try it first. Following Athene’s prophecy, Scaevola meets the first woman in his life, and ignores her. When Caligulae is assassinated, Scaevola must save Claudius from the attempted Scribonianus coup, then he is given command of Legio XX Valeria for the invasion of Britain. Leaving aside Scaevola’s actions, this is as historically accurate as I can make it, but since the relevant volume of The Annals are lost, there will be inaccuracies, but equally that gives some opportunity to imagine. Amazon link: http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00JRH83E2
From April 18 – 25, Athene’s Prophecy will be discounted to 99c on Amazon in the US and 99p in the UK. Science fiction with some science you can try your hand at. Have you got what it takes to actually develop a theory? The story is based around Gaius Claudius Scaevola, given the cognomen by Tiberius, who is asked by Pallas Athene to do three things, before he will be transported to another planet. The scientific problem is to prove the Earth goes around the Sun with what was known and was available in the first century. Can you do it? Try your luck. I suspect you will fail, and to stop cheating, the answer is in the following ebook. Meanwhile, the story. Scaevola is in Egypt for the anti-Jewish riots, then to Syria as Tribunis laticlavius in the Fulminata, then he has the problem of stopping a rebellion when Caligulae orders a statue of himself in the temple of Jerusalem. You will get a different picture of Caligulae than what you normally see, supported by a transcription of a report of the critical meeting regarding the statue by Philo of Alexandria. (Fortunately, copyright has expired.). First of a series. http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00GYL4HGW
From Sunday, March 3 to Saturday, March 9, Smashwords is running a sale. The ebooks I have there (https://www.smashwords.com/profile/view/IanMiller) are all discounted. The three fiction books form a series.
Puppeteer (https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/69696) is a thriller set in a future where shortages, government debt, and persistent warfare are eroding governance. Set in California and Kerguelen, Two pairs of people who are unaware of each others’ existence must combine and succeed in countering a terrorist, or a hundred million people will die and billions of dollars of property will be destroyed.
‘Bot War (https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/677836) In which the problems of Puppeteer have not been addressed. The government is still essentially bankrupt, but Islamic terrorists determined for revenge for what happened in their homeland take control of the latest AI war machines.
Troubles (https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/174203) The world is recovering from a state of anarchy. There is money to be made, and opposition to kill. Law and order is privatized, and those with money have a huge advantage.
Biofuels An Overview (https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/454344) Contrary to what many people say, biofuels could make a serious impact on our carbon dioxide emissions (because while the emissions are the same, the carbon originally came from the atmosphere). There are a number of criticisms, and they are valid for many of the proposals, but that is because the easiest options are the least suitable for various reasons, not the least because there is going to be a major need for food. Find out what the better options are, from someone who has worked on the topic for many years.
From February 14 – 21, (Seattle time) “Red Gold” will be discounted to 99c/99p. In the previous post, I gave a rather frivolous scam possibility related to space exploration. Try something a little more serious.
Mars is to be colonized. The hype is huge, the suckers will line up, and we will control the floats. There is money to be made, and the beauty is, nobody on Earth can check what is really going on on Mars.
Partly inspired by the 1988 crash, Red Gold shows the anatomy of one sort of fraud. Then there’s Mars, and where The Martian showed the science behind one person surviving for a modest period, Red Gold shows the science needed for many colonists to survive indefinitely. As a bonus there is an appendix that shows how the writing of this novel led to a novel explanation for the presence of Martian rivers.
If you liked The Martian where science allowed one person to survive then Red Gold is a thriller that has a touch of romance, a little economics and enough science to show how Mars might be colonised and the colonists survive indefinitely.
From December 25 through to January 1, my books on Smashwords will be significantly discounted, and one free. To view the books go to https://www.smashwords.com/profile/view/IanMiller