Book Discount

From January 23 – 30, my thriller, The Manganese Dilemma, will be discounted to 99c/99p on Amazon. 

The Russians did it; everyone is convinced of that. But just exactly what did they do? Charles Burrowes, a master hacker, is thrown into a ‘black op’ with the curvaceous Svetlana for company to validate new super stealth technology she has brought to the West. Some believe there is nothing there since their surveillance technology cannot show any evidence of it, but then it is “super stealth” so just maybe . . . Also, Svetlana’s father was shot dead as they made their escape. Can Burrowes provide what the CIA needs before Russian counterintelligence or a local criminal conspiracy blow the whole operation out of the water? The lives of many CIA agents in Russia will depend on how successful he is.

Ebook Discount

From December 25 – January 1, my ebooks at Smashwords will be significantly discounted. The fictional ebooks include”

Puppeteer:  A technothriller where governance is breaking down due to government debt, and where a terrorist attack threatens to kill tens to hundreds of millions of people and destroy billions of dollars worth of infrastructure.

http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/69696

‘Bot War:  A technothriller set about 8 years later, a more concerted series of terrorist attacks made by stolen drones lead to partial governance breaking down.

Smashwords    https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/677836

Troubles. Dystopian, set about 10 years later still, the world is emerging from anarchy, and there is a scramble to control the assets. Some are just plain greedy, some think corporate efficiency should rule, some think the individual should have the right to thrive, some think democracy should prevail as long as they can rig it, while the gun is the final arbiter.

https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/174203

There is also the non-fictional “Biofuels”. This gives an overview of the issues involved in biofuels having an impact on climate change. Given that electric vehicles, over their lifetime probably have an environmental impact equivalent to or greater than the combustion motor, givn that we might want to continue to fly, and given that the carbon from a combustion exhaust offers no increase in atmospheric carbon levels if it came from biofuel, you might be interested to see what potential this has. The author was involved in research on this intermittently (i.e. when there was a crisis and funding was available) for over thirty years. https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/454344

Book Discount

From November 21 – 28, Athene’s Prophecy will be discounted to 99c/99p on Amazon. Science fiction with some science you can try your hand at. The story is based around Gaius Claudius Scaevola, given the cognomen by Tiberius, who is asked by Pallas Athene to do three things before he will be transported to another planet, where he must get help to save humanity from total destruction. The scientific problem is to prove the Earth goes around the Sun with what was known and was available in the first century. Can you do it? Try your luck. I suspect you will fail, and to stop cheating, the answer is in the following ebook. Meanwhile, the story.  Scaevola is in Egypt for the anti-Jewish riots, then to Syria as Tribunis laticlavius in the Fulminata, then he has the problem of stopping a rebellion when Caligulae orders a statue of himself in the temple of Jerusalem. You will get a different picture of Caligulae than what you normally see, supported by a transcription of a report of the critical meeting regarding the statue by Philo of Alexandria. (Fortunately, copyright has expired.). First of a series. http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00GYL4HGW

Book Discount

From October 17 – 24, “Red Gold” will be discounted to 99c/99p. 

Mars is to be colonized. The hype is huge, the suckers will line up, and we will control the floats. There is money to be made, and the beauty is, nobody on Earth can check what is really going on on Mars. 

Partly inspired by the 1988 crash, Red Gold shows the anatomy of one sort of fraud. Then there’s Mars, and where Red Gold shows the science needed for many colonists to survive indefinitely. As a bonus there is an appendix that shows how the writing of this novel led to a novel explanation for the presence of Martian rivers.Red Gold is a thriller with a touch of romance, a little economics and enough science to show how Mars might be colonised and survive indefinitely.

Book Discount

From September 19 – 26 Ranh will be discounted to 99c on Amazon in the US and 99p in the UK. An advanced civilization evolved from Cretaceous life on Earth that had been transported to a nearby planet. It is a theocracy, and there are some who believe it is their holy task to recover the planet of creation from those pesky mammals. A delegation from Earth arrives to negotiate a peace treaty, but can such a treaty be realized? Or will the raptors launch against humanity? Only Baht, unacknowledged, the lowest of the low, must do what no other unacknowledged female has ever done or there will be interplanetary war. A tale of plotting, conspiracy, religious fervour, murder, treachery, honour, diplomacy, and tail-ball.

Book Discount

From August 22 – 28  Jonathon Munros will be discounted to 99c on Amazon in the US and 99p in the UK. The third book in a series, in which the evil Jonathon Munro violates the only reason his evil behaviour has as yet not been punished. He is to be replaced by an android, who learns to behave like the real man. However, Jonathon’s inherent evil has been underestimated, and the android, knowing of Jonathon’s obsession with sex, and knowing that sex is needed for reproduction, decides to start reproducing itself. What could possibly go right? A dystopian hard science fiction novel that, while the third of a series, stands alone as long as you accept the characters have a past, and a problem that makes the Terminator seem modest.

The Electric Vehicle as a Solution to the Greenhouse Problem

Further to the discussion on climate change, in New Zealand now the argument is that we must reduce our greenhouse emissions by converting our vehicle fleet to electric vehicles. So, what about the world? Let us look at the details. Currently, there are estimated to be 1.2 billion vehicles on the roads, and by 2035 there will be two billion, assuming current trends continue. However, let us forget about such trends, and look at what it would take to switch 1.2 billion electric vehicles to electric. Obviously, at the price of them, that is not going to happen overnight, but how feasible is this in the long run?

For a scoping analysis, we need numbers, and the following is a “back of the envelope” type analysis. This is designed not to give answers, but at least to visualise the size of the problem. To start, we have to assume a battery size per vehicle, so I am going to assume each vehicle will have an 85 kWh battery assembly. A number of vehicles now have more than this, but equally many have less. However, for initial “back of the envelope” scoping, details are ignored. For the current purposes I shall assume an 85 kWh battery assembly and focus n the batteries.

First, we need a graphite anode, which, from web-provided data will require approximately 40 million t of graphite. Since Turkey alone has reserves of about 90 million t, strictly speaking, graphite is not a problem, although from a chemical point of view, what might be called graphite is not necessarily suitable. However, if there are impurities, they can be cleaned up. So far, not a limiting factor.

Next, each battery assembly will use about 6 kg of lithium, and using the best figures from Tesla, at least 17 kg of cobalt. This does not look too serious until we get to multiplying by 1.2 billion, which gets us to 7.2 million tonne of lithium, and 20.4 million t of cobalt. World production of lithium is 43,000 t/a, while that of cobalt is 110,000 t/a, and most of the cobalt goes to other uses already known. So overnight conversion is not possible. The world reserves of lithium are about 16 million t, so there is enough lithium, although since most of the reserves are not actually in production, presumably due to the difficulty in purifying the materials, we can assume a significant price increase would be required. Worse, the known reserves for cobalt are 7,100,000 so it is not possible to power these vehicles with our current “best battery technology”. There are alternatives, such as manganese based cathode additives, but with current technology they only have about 2/3 the power density and they can only last for about half the number of power cycles, so maybe this is not an answer.

Then comes the problem of how to power these vehicles. Let us suppose they use about ¼ of their energy on high-use days and they recharge for the next day. That requires about 24 billion kWhr of electricity generated that day for this purpose. World electricity production is currently a little over 21,000 TWh, Up to a point, that indicates “no problem”, except that over 1/3 of that came from coal, while gas and oil burning added to coal brought the fossil fuels contribution up to 2/3 of world energy production, and coal burning was the fastest growing contribution to energy demand. Also, of course, this is additional electricity we need. Global energy demand rose by 900 TWh in 2018. (Electricity statistics from the International Energy Agency.) So switching to electric vehicles will increase coal burning, which increases the emission of greenhouse gases, counter to the very problem you are trying to solve. Obviously, electricity supply is not a problem for transport, but it clearly overwhelms transport in contributing to the greenhouse gas problem. Germany closing its nuclear power stations is not a useful contribution to the problem.

It is frequently argued that solar power is the way to collect the necessary transport electricity. According to Wikipedia, the most productive solar power plant is in China’s Tengger desert, which produces 1.547 GW from 43 square kilometers. If we assume that it can operate like this for 6 hrs per day, we have 9.3 Gwh/day. The Earth has plenty of area, however, the 110,000 square km required is a significant fraction. Further, most places do not have such a friendly desert close by. Many have proposed that solar panels of the roof of houses could store power through the day and charge the vehicle at night, but to do that we have just doubled the battery requirements, and these are strained already. The solar panels could feed the grid through the day and charge the vehicles through the night when peak power demand has fallen away, so that would solve part of the problem, but now the solar panels have to make sense in terms of generating electricity for general purposes. Note that if we develop fusion power, which would solve a lot of energy requirements, it is most unlikely a fusion power plant could have its energy output varied too much, which would mean they would have run continuously through the night. At this point, charging electric cars would greatly assist the use of fusion power.

To summarise the use of electricity to power road transport using independent vehicles, there would need to be a significant increase in electricity production, but it is still a modest fraction of what we already generate. The reason it is so significant to New Zealand is that much of New Zealand electricity is renewable anyway, thanks to the heavy investment in hydropower. Unfortunately, that does not count because it was all installed prior to 1990. Those who turned off coal plants to switch to gas that had suddenly became available around 1990 did well out of these protocols, while those who had to resort to thermal because the hydro was fully utilised did not. However, in general the real greenhouse problem lies with the much bigger thermal power station emissions, especially the coal-fired stations. The limits to growth of electric vehicles currently lie with battery technology, and for electric vehicles to make more than a modest contribution to the transport problems, we need a fundamentally different form of battery or fuel cell. However, to power them, we need to develop far more productive electricity generation that does emit greenhouse gases.

Finally, I have yet to mention the contribution of biofuels. I shall do that later, but if you want a deeper perspective than in my blogs, my ebook “Biofuels” is 99c this week at Smashwords, in all formats. (https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/454344.)  Three other fictional ebooks are also on discount. (Go to https://www.smashwords.com/profile/view/IanMiller)