Science that does not make sense

Occasionally in science we see reports that do not make sense. The first to be mentioned here relates to Oumuamua, the “interstellar asteroid” mentioned in my previous post. In a paper (arXiv:1901.08704v3 [astro-ph.EP] 30 Jan 2019) Sekanina suggests the object was the debris of a dwarf interstellar comet that disintegrated before perihelion. One fact that Sekanina thought to be important was that no intrinsically faint long-period comet with a perihelion distance less than about 0.25 AU, which means it comes as close or closer than about two-thirds the distance from the sun as Mercury, have ever been observed after perihelion. The reason is that if the comet gets that close to the star, the heat just disintegrates it. Sekanina proposed that such an interstellar comet entered our system and disintegrated, leaving “a monstrous fluffy dust aggregate released in the recent explosive event, ‘Oumuamua should be of strongly irregular shape, tumbling, not outgassing, and subjected to effects of solar radiation pressure, consistent with observation.” Convinced? My problem: just because comets cannot survive close encounters with the sun does not mean a rock emerging from near the sun started as a comet. This is an unfortunately common logic problem. A statement of the form “if A, then B” simply means what it says. It does NOT mean, there is B therefor there must have been A.

At this point it is of interest to consider what comets are comprised of. The usual explanation is they are formed by ices and dust accreting. The comets are formed in the very outer solar system (e.g.the Oort cloud) by the ices sticking together. The ices include gases such as nitrogen and carbon monoxide, which are easily lost once they get hot. Here, “hot” is still very cold. When the gases volatalise, they tend to blow off a lot of dust, and that dust is what we see as the tail, which is directed away from the star due to radiation pressure and solar wind. The problem with Sekanina’s interpretation is, the ice holds everything together. The paper conceded this when it said it was a monstrous fluffy aggregate, but for me as the ice vaporizes, it will push the dust apart. Further, even going around a star, it will still happen progressively. The dust should spread out, as a comet tail. It did not for Oumuamua.

The second report was from Bonomo, in Nature Astronomy(doi.org/10.1038/s41550-018-0648-9). They claimed the Kepler 107 system provided evidence of giant collisions, as described in my previous post, and the sort of thing that might make an Oumuamua. What the paper claims is there are two planets with radii about fifty per cent bigger than Earth, and the outer planet is twice as dense (relative density ~ 12.6 g/cm^3) than the inner one (relative density ~ 5.3 g/cm^3). The authors argue that this provides evidence for a giant collision that would have stripped off much of the silicates from the outer planet, thus leaving more of an iron core. In this context, that is what some people think is the reason for Mercury having a density almost approaching that of Earth so the authors are simply tagging on to a common theme.

So why do I think this does not make sense? Basically because the relative density of iron is 7.87 g/cm^3. Even if this planet is pure iron, it could not have a density significantly greater than 7.8. (There is an increase in density due to compressibility under gravity, but iron is not particularly compressible so any gain will be small.) Even solid lead would not do. Silicates and gold would be OK, so maybe we should start a rumour? Raise money for an interstellar expedition to get rich quick (at least from the raised money!) However, from the point of view of the composition of dust that forms planets, that is impossible so maybe investors will see through this scam. Maybe.

So what do I think has happened? In two words, experimental error. The mass has to be determined by the orbital interactions with something else. What the Kepler mehod does is determine the orbital characteristics by measuring the periodic times, i.e.the times between various occultations. The size is measured from the width of the occultation signal and the slope of the signal at the beginning and the end. All of these have possible errors, and they include the size of the star and the assumed position re the equator of the star, so the question now is, how big are these errors? I am starting to suspect, very big.

This is of interest to me since I wrote an ebook, “Planetary Formation and Biogenesis”. In this, I surveyed all the knowedge I could find up to the time of writing, and argued the standard theory was wrong. Why? It took several chapters to nail this, but the essence is that standard theory starts with a distribution of planetesimals and lets gravitational interactions lead to their joining up into planets. The basic problems I see with this are that collisions will lead to fragmentation, and the throwing into deep space, or the star, bits of planet. The second problem is nobody has any idea how such planetesimals form. I start by considering chemical interactions, and when I do that, after noting that what happens will depend on the temperatures around where it happens (what happens in chemistry is often highly temperature dependent) you get very selective zoes that differ from each other quite significantly. Our planets are in such zones (if you assume Jupiter formed at the “snow zone”) and have the required properties. Since I wrote that, I have been following the papers on the topic and nothing has been found that contradicts it, except, arguably things like the Kepler 107 “extremely dense planet”. I argue it is impossible, and therefore the results are in error.

Should anyone be interested in this ebook, see http://www.amazon.com/dp/B007T0QE6I

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Book Discount

From December 13 – 20, Miranda’s Demonswill be discounted to 99c on Amazon in the US and UK. In 2285, the 34 exhausts of a badly mauled alien battle fleet are seen travelling at relativistic velocities to end on Miranda, the innermost moon of Uranus. Representatives of a Terran Corporation accidentally meet two aliens on Mars and do a deal: give us Mars and we shall give you the slave labour and metals you need to repair your ships. Natasha Kotchetkova, the Commissioner for Defence is faced with an alien race that totally outclasses any Earth military technology.  War is coming, but even if Terran forces can win, who wins the following peace? Meanwhile, Scaevola has followed the aliens, and arrives on Earth to meet his prophesied “second woman in his life: the ugliest woman in the world”.

A hard science fiction epic with 18 major characters, four alien races, several romances, not all of which end well, treachery, and is set variously in 3 continents, the Earth-Moon L-4 space station, Mars, Iapetus, the asteroid belt and Miranda. Book IV of a series, but originally written as a stand-alone.

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00ZH851G8

Book Discounts and Video

From November 8 – 15, two ebooks will be 99c or 99p. These are:

Scaevola’s Triumph

The bizarre prophecy has worked, and Scaevola finds himself on an alien planet that is technically so advanced they consider him a primitive, yet it is losing a war. According to Pallas Athene, only he can save this civilization from extermination, and his use of strategy is needed to win this war. But what can he do, when at first he cannot even open the door to his apartment?  Book III of a series. http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00O0GS7LO

The Manganese Dilemma

Charles Burrowes, master hacker, is thrown into a ‘black op’ with the curvaceous Svetlana for company to validate new super stealth technology she has brought to the West. Can Burrowes provide what the CIA needs before Russian counterintelligence or a local criminal conspiracy blow the whole operation out of the water? https://www.amazon.com/dp/B077865V3L

Finally, for those who what to know what I look like: https://youtu.be/2z7lBTQ_nWY

A link to Red Gold:  http://www.amazon.com/dp/B009U0458Y

Discount on Ebook

Discounted to 99c/99p from Oct 11 – 18: Legionis Legatus. Second in a series wherein Scaevola, on the verge of abandoning Athene’s quest, suddenly finds more of the prophecy coming true: Caligulae gives him the command of a legion; he suddenly sees why Aristotle was wrong when he proved the Earth could not go around the sun; and while doing so, he ignores the most beautiful woman he has seen, one of the only two prophesied to be in his life. Scaevola must recover from ignoring she who could be his wife, help thwart the Scribonianus coup against Claudius, and command legion XX Valeria for the invasion of Britain. A historical novel that also includes the answer to the scientific puzzle in Athene’s Prophecy: how to show why the earth has to go around the sun with the knowledge available at the time. http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00JRH83E2

Colonizing Mars

Recently, Elon Musk threw a Tesla car at Mars and somewhat carelessly, missed. How can you miss a planet? The answer is, not unsurprisingly, quite easily. Mars might be a planet, and planets might seem large, but they are staggeringly small compared with the solar system. But whatever else this achieved, it did draw attention back to thoughts of humans on Mars, and as an exercise, it is not simple to bring the two together. Stephen Hawking was keen on establishing a colony there, mainly as some sort of reserve for humanity in case we did something stupid with out own planet. Would we do that? Unfortunately, the answer is depressingly quite possibly.

So what is required to get to Mars? First, not missing. NASA has shown that it can do this, so in principle this problem is solved. The second requirement is to arrive at the surface at essentially zero vertical velocity, and NASA has not been quite so successful at that, nevertheless, we can assume that landing will be with a piloted shuttle, so this should be able to be done. So far, so good? Well, not quite, because when you get there you have to have enough “stuff” to ensure you can survive. If it is a scientific exploration, the people will be away for over two years, so at a minimum, they will need groceries for two years, unless they grow their own food. They will need their own oxygen and water unless they can recycle it. They will need some means of getting around or there is no point in going, and they will need some sort of habitat. If they are settlers they will need a lot more because they are not coming back.

The obvious first thing to for settlers to do is to have somewhere to live. We can assume that the ship that brought them will provide a temporary place, although if the ship is to be recycled back to earth and they came down in a shuttle, this is a priority. At the same time they must build facilities to grow their own food and make oxygen. This raises the question, how many people could actually grow food and guarantee to do it well enough not to starve in a totally different environment to here? I am not sure you can train for that, but even if you can, there will still need to be a lot of food taken as well as oxygen. However, let’s assume these settlers are really competent and they are raring to get on with it.

The first requirement would be enough area to do it, so they would need a giant glass house (or houses). That means glass, and metal to hold it, but there is worse. You have to pressurize it, because the Martian atmospheric pressure on average is only about ½% of Earth’s. That means you need a strong pump, but because of the aggressive nature of dust in the atmosphere much of the time, you need some form of filter. The air is about 95.3% carbon dioxide, about 2.7% nitrogen and 1.6% argon. If you want to recover the oxygen to breathe, you want to boost the nitrogen so that what is produced is breathable as air, and that requires a major gas separator. The best way is probably to seriously overpressurise it, so the carbon dioxide comes out as a liquid, and keep the rest. However, there is another problem: you need water, so that equipment will probably have to be made even more complicated so the water in the atmosphere can be recovered. The next problem is that if the glasshouse is to be pressurized, it has to be leak-proof. All the joints have to be sealed with something that will not decay under UV radiation, and worse than that, a deep footer is needed around the glasshouse. That means digging a deep trench, pouring concrete, and sealing the walls. Finally, the whole regolith inside the glasshouse has to be treated to decompose its strong oxidizing nature (but this does produce a small amount of oxygen) otherwise the soil will sterilize anything you plant, then you have to add some actual soil. Many of these operations would be best done mechanically, but they each need their own machine.

You may notice that all of these things costs weight, and that is not what is wanted on a space ship. So the question is, how much can be brought there? There is a second requirement. Every time you use a machine, you need fuel. That has to be electric, which means either batteries, which so far would require huge numbers to keep going all day, or fuel cells, but if fuel cells are selected, what will be the fuel? Note that two fuels are required; one to “burn” and the other to burn it in, as there is no oxygen in the atmosphere worth having. Either way, a serious energy producer is required because not only do you have to power things, but you have to keep your glasshouse warm. The night-time temperatures can drop below minus 100 degrees Centigrade. The most obvious source is nuclear, either fission or fusion, but that requires shielding and even more weight.

The above is just some of the issues. I wrote a novel (Red Gold) that involved Martian settlement. The weight of the two ships was twenty million tonne each, and each had a thermonuclear propulsion system that detached and could be used as power plants and mineral separation units later. The idea was that construction materials would be made there, but even if that is done, a huge amount of stuff has to be taken. Think of the cost of lifting forty million tonne of stuff from Earth into orbit alone. Why two ships? Because everything should be done in duplicate, in case something goes wrong. Why that much stuff? Because you want this not to be some horrible exercise in survival.

At this stage I shall insert a small commercial. Red Gold is a story of such colonization, and of fraud, and it includes a lot more about what it might take to colonize Mars. It is available on Kindle Countdown discounts from 13 – 19 April. (http://www.amazon.com/dp/B009U0458Y)

Read an Ebook Week Discounts

raew 2018 - 4

From March 4 through to March 10 (US Pacific time), my books on Smashwords, and related sites, Apple, Kobo, etc will be discounted in support of “Read an ebook week”. For details of the books see:

https://www.smashwords.com/profile/view/IanMiller

For expected prices (USD) and links (In order, Smashwords, Apple, Kobo, B&N) Note, where you see /nz/ in a link, replace that with your country code. (A very brief, “What is it” is also included.)

Puppeteer: Free. (Debt, terrorism, Kerguelen cabbage)

http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/69696

https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/puppeteer/id454479624?mt=11&uo=4

http://www.kobobooks.com/ebook/Puppeteer/book-2mLRmdVRuE6F94uzrlwaBQ/page1.html

http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/puppeteer-ian-miller/1104728876?ean=2940011435720&itm=12&usri=puppeteer

‘Bot War: $1.50 (Terror from uncontrolled war machines, Economic collapse.)

https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/677836

https://itunes.apple.com/nz/book/bot-war/id1172058623?mt=11

https://www.kobo.com/nz/en/ebook/bot-war

https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/bot-war-ian-j-miller/1125069710?ean=2940153823096

Troubles: $1.00 (Emergence from anarchy)

https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/174203

https://itunes.apple.com/nz/book/troubles/id543024946?mt=11&uo=4

http://www.kobobooks.com/ebook/Troubles/book-CouVFh0tDEW2ffKRy4DQmA/page1.html?s=HMM0hJj0EkGQMuXaCBhUAA&r=2

http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/troubles-ian miller/1112037527?ean=2940044672888

Biofuels An Overview (Nonfiction. What you don’t know about biofuels.)

https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/454344

https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/biofuels.-an-overview./id904818071?mt=11

https://www.kobo.com/nz/en/ebook/biofuels-an-overview

http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/biofuels-an-overview-ian-miller/1120033869?ean=2940046070880