By now it is impossible to be unaware of the presence of a certain coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2, causing COVID-19) that is sweeping around the world. (Wouldn’t it be better if some nit-pickers could stop changing the name and do something more constructive to deal with it?) Unfortunately, the time for containment has passed. It may have been that the only chance was early on in Wuhan because China can do things to stop the personal lack of consideration of others; the possibility of 5 years in a Chinese jail would inhibit most from personal stupidity, but the authorities did not get started quickly enough. This, in turn, may have been because the officials in Wuhan did no alert Beijing until it was impossible for Beijing not to notice. That golden opportunity was missed.
In New Zealand, we started with a law passed by which all people coming into the country had to self-isolate for two weeks. Within about two days a small number had been arrested for breaking that rule. In Wellington here we had someone fly in from Brisbane. He had been tested in Brisbane, but would he wait for the test results? No, he felt he wasn’t sick (so why was he tested?) Did he stay isolated until the test results? Of course not. When you are that self-centred, you do not suddenly become responsible. Wellington now has the second most cases in the country.
There was one woman who arrived in Auckland from overseas and was feeling ill. At this stage she was advised to self-isolate but the law requiring her to had yet to come into play. So what did she do? She convinced herself she wasn’t so ill after all, so she flew to Palmerston North, where she discovered that maybe she really was sick so she flew back to Auckland. The net result of this is we shall get some idea of how easily this virus really does spread. So far, Palmerston North has three cases, but if there is an inexplicable surge over the next few days, we shall find out something. If, on the other hand, there are no such cases, we may be able to breathe a little easier. (It is not just the people sitting close on the aircraft; recall how people behave prior to boarding, during boarding, collecting luggage, and if using public transport, getting to and from the airport.)
While we were relying on voluntary compliance, the virus was actively spreading. The government has now required a complete lockdown, going out only for essential services. Will that work? In principle, if everyone on the entire planet stayed home for a month, all would be well. Those who had it would have to recover, but the virus would run out of people to transmit to. Simple? The problem there lies in everyone doing it at the same time. In the West, people want freedom of movement. Asking them to give this up seems to be beyond them. In New Zealand this might work. The police and if necessary the military are there to enforce it, and China appears to have shown this can work. We shall see.
As for me, I am self-isolating, only going out for groceries, but in my case, because I am retired it is no big deal. My day-time job used to be to do chemical research on contract for companies wanting to develop new products. That work has dried up completely. When potential clients are having problems staying open and paying their wages, research is the first to be stopped. As it happens, I was approached to write a chapter for an academic book on hydroliquefaction of algae, so writing that will keep me occupied. Searching the scientific literature can be done on-line these days.
The main tactic is not to get close to people. However, there is also the problem that the virus may land on something and you touch it. Staying at home is fine, but you still have to get groceries, and some people have to work. Hand washing is important, but if you touch something after washing hands, that wash does nothing for what follows. The virus on the hand does no damage, but how often do you touch your face? What I intend to do is make a blocking gel to smear on my hands when visiting the supermarket. Two functions are desirable. One is to kill viruses. The second is to make the virus immobilized on the gel, like flies on flypaper. The coronavirus has a “crown” of protein so something that binds protein is called for. I won’t know for sure it works, but one advantage is that while I cannot get it tested for efficiency, I can back my own theoretical ability for myself.So, keep well, everyone. If all goes will and we all cooperate, this will pass. Finally, good luck all.
ianmillerblog 